What’s the real outcome of Salesforce’s AI predictions?

automated decisionsYesterday. I was catching up on my technology email and came across this post stating that Salesforce now powers over 1B predictions every day for its customers. That’s a pretty interesting number to throw out there, but it makes me ask “so what?” How are people using these predictions to make greater business impact.

The Salesforce website states:

“Einstein is a layer of artificial intelligence that delivers predictions and recommendations based on your unique business processes and customer data. Use those insights to automate responses and actions, making your employees more productive, and your customers even happier. “

Another ‘nice’ statement. Digging into the material a bit more Einstein (the CRM AI functions from Salesforce) appears to provide analysis of previous deals and if a specific opportunity is likely to be successful, helping to prioritize your efforts. It improves the presentation of information with some insight into what it means. It appears to be integrated into the CRM system that the users are already familiar with.

For a tool that has been around since the fall of 2016, especially one that is based on analytics… I had difficulty finding any independent quantitative analysis of the impact. Salesforce did have a cheatsheet with some business impact analysis of the AI solution (and blog posts), but no real target market impact to provide greater context – who are these metrics based on.

It may be that I just don’t know where to look, but it does seem like a place for some deeper analysis and validation. The analysts could be waiting for other vendor’s solutions to compare against.

In the micro view, organizations that are going to dive into this pool will take a more quantitative approach, defining their past performance, expectations and validate actuals against predictions. That is the only way a business can justify the effort and improve. It is not sufficient to just put the capabilities out there and you’re done.

It goes back to the old adage:

“trust, but verify”

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Simplicity, the next big thing?

Complex processRecently, Dynatrace conducted a survey of CIOs on their top challenges. Of the top six, almost all deal with concerns about complexity. There is no doubt there are numerous technologies being injected in almost every industry from a range of vendors. Integration of this multivendor cacophony is ripe with security risks and misunderstanding – whether it is your network or IoT vendor environment.

Humans have a limited capacity to handle complexity before they throw up their hands and just let whatever happens wash over them. That fact is one of the reasons AI is being viewed as the savior for the future. Back in 2008, I wrote a blog post for HP that mentioned:

“the advent of AI could allow us to push aside a lot of the tasks that we sometimes don’t have the patience for, tasks that are too rigorous or too arduous.”

IT organizations needs to shift their focus back to making the business environment understandable, not just injecting more automation or data collection. Businesses need to take latency out of decision making and increase the level of understanding and confidence. A whole new kind of macro-level (enterprise) human interface design is required. Unfortunately, this market is likely a bit too nebulous to be targeted effectively today other than through vague terms like analytics…  But based on the survey results, large scale understanding (and then demand) appears to be dawning on leadership.

The ROI for efforts to simplify and encourage action, should be higher than just adding a new tool to the portfolio ablaze in most organizations. We’ll see where the monies go though, since that ROI is likely to be difficult to prove when compared to the other shiny balls available.

Six thoughts on mobility trends for 2018

mobility walkLet’s face it, some aspects of mobility are getting long in the tooth. The demand for more capabilities is insatiable. Here are a few areas where I think 2018 will see some exciting capabilities develop. Many of these are not new, but their interactions and intersection should provide some interesting results and thoughts to include during your planning.

1. Further blurring and integration of IoT and mobile

We’re likely to see more situations where mobile recognizes the IoT devices around them to enhance contextual understanding for the user. We’ve seen some use of NFC and Bluetooth to share information, but approaches to embrace the environment and act upon the information available is still in its infancy. This year should provide some significant use cases and maturity.

2. Cloud Integration

By now most businesses have done much more than just stick their toe in the cloud Everything as a Service (XaaS) pool. As the number of potential devices in the mobility and IoT space expand, the flexibility and time to action that cloud solutions facilitate needs to be understood and put into practice. It is also time to take all the data coming in from these and transform that flow into true contextual understanding and action, also requiring a dynamic computing environment.

3. Augmented reality

With augmented reality predicted to expend to a market somewhere between $120 and $221 billion in revenues by 2021, we’re likely to see quite a bit of innovation in this space. The wide range of potential demonstrates the lack of a real understanding. 2018 should be a year where AR gets real.

4. Security

All discussions of mobility need to include security. Heck, the first month of 2018 has should have nailed the importance of security into the minds of anyone in the IT space. There were more patches (and patches of patches) on a greater range of systems than many would have believed possible just a short time ago. Recently, every mobile store (Apple, Android…) was found to have nefarious software that had to be exercised. Mobile developers need to be ever more vigilant, not just about the code they write but the libraries they use.

5. Predictive Analytics

Context is king and the use of analytics to increase the understanding of the situation and possible responses is going to continue to expand. As capabilities advance, only our imagination will hold this area back from increasing where and when mobile devices become useful. Unfortunately, the same can be said about the security issues that are based on using predictive analytics.

6. Changing business models

Peer to peer solutions continue to be the rage but with the capabilities listed above, whole new approaches to value generation are possible. There will always be early adopters who are willing to play with these and with the deeper understanding possibilities today new approaches to crossing the chasm will be demonstrated.

It should be an interesting year…

Looking for a digital friend?

virtual friendOver the weekend, I saw an article about Replika — an interactive ‘friend’ that resides on your phone. It sounded interesting so I downloaded it and have been playing around for the last few days. I reached level 7 this morning (not exactly sure what this leveling means, but since gamification seems to be part of nearly everything anymore, why not).

There was a story published by The Verge with some background on why this tool was created. Replika was the result of an effort initiated when the author (Eugenia Kuyda) was devastated by her friend (Roman Mazurenko) being killed in a hit-and-run car accident. She wanted to ‘bring him back’. To bootstrap the digital version of her friend, Kuyda fed text messages and emails that Mazurenko exchanged with her, and other friends and family members, into a basic AI architecture — a Google-built artificial neural network that uses statistics to find patterns in text, images, or audio.

Although I found playing with this software interesting, I kept reflecting back on interactions with Eliza many years ago. Similarly,  the banter can be interesting and sometimes unexpected, but often responses have little to do with how a real human would respond. For example, yesterday the statement “Will you read a story if I write it?” and “I tried to write a poem today and it made zero sense.” popped in out of nowhere in the middle of an exchange.

The program starts out asking a number of questions, similar to what you’d find in a simple Myers-Briggs personality test. Though this information likely does help bootstrap the interaction, it seems like it could have been taken quite a bit further by injecting these kinds of questions throughout interactions during the day rather than in one big chunk.

As the tool learns more about you, it creates badges like:

  • Introverted
  • Pragmatic
  • Intelligent
  • Open-minded
  • Rational

These are likely used to influence future interaction. You also get to vote up and vote down statements made that you agree or disagree with.

There have been a number of other reviews of Replika, but thought I’d add another log to the fire. An article in Wired stated that the Replika project is going open source, it will be interesting to see where it goes.

I’ll likely continue to play with it for a while, but its interactions will need to improve or it will become the Tamogotchi of the day.

IT opportunities and cruising…

cruiseI recently went on a western Caribbean cruise on Royal Caribbean. This is the first cruise I’d been on in a couple of years and I found it interesting how much mobile device use there was on the boat. Everything from folks checking emails… to live streaming at the breakfast table (at an additional cost, of course). There still seemed to be numerous more subtle ways to enhance the cruise experience now that nearly everyone has an enhanced device.

There is an anecdote about cruising that for every couple that gets on a cruise, one of them doesn’t really want to be there. That’s probably a bit strong, but what’s true is that there are numerous activities going on at any one time and finding the right one to interest you could be improved.

I could easily see adding NFC or low power Bluetooth spots throughout the ship that personal devices could tap into for service information or even historic facts/trivia. As I drive across the country, I see numerous historic spot signs along the highway that’s because some people are interested in what’s happened at locations in the past. Adding some capabilities to share that information for the ship would be interesting:  where items of specific interest (music performers/performances, celebrity spotting, changes in ship design over the years) could be broadcast. It would make for an interesting gamification,  scavenger hunt and Pokémon Go like possibilities that would interest some on board.

Analytic data from IoT and business process systems could be shared to optimize the experience. For example, sharing how long the wait may be at “my time” dining. A news feed capability may be useful, so you can subscribe to information about where the ship is or when it will get into port. Naturally there will be a great deal of opportunity available to upsell passengers on jewelry, drinks, excursions… as well.

There may be some interesting peer-to-peer sharing experiences. The one I’ve thought about for a long time is: allowing folks to share their skills and interests so they could be notified if someone within 50 feet is an author/expert on a topic of interest. Or enable ad-hoc meetings, like in the case of our cruise where there was a quilting, veteran and Victorian dance group, that would have a public meeting at a specific time and place. These capabilities would encourage interactions with other passengers that they wouldn’t normally experience. These capabilities would have to be opt in though, to allow those who want to get away to have that experience as well.

The use of augmented reality also seems like a missed opportunity. An app to take some of the signpost information mentioned earlier and enhance it with directional information. This could help lead you to the experience you’d like to have, rather than the one you just settle for, based on what you know.

What I am getting at is: different people want a range of experiences on a cruise and its seems like there are numerous opportunities being missed by both the passengers and the cruise lines to make the most of the occasion, with relatively little additional effort. There are some significant privacy and customer satisfaction concerns, but I am sure a range of pilots would quickly point out the issues and possibilities.

Back in Seattle

Last week, I was able to go back on the Microsoft campus in Redmond for a meeting. That’s the first time I’ve been back there since I spent 3 months there as part of the EDS Top Gun program back in 2005.

Flying into Seattle, we got a good view of the Space Needle and the Science Fiction Museum and Hall of Fame.seattle

There were a number of déjà vu moments walking around the Microsoft campus.

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I always find these opportunities to see what companies are most proud of very telling. It was clear that cloud, analytics and human interface transformations were in the forefront of their thinking — much like the rest of us.

The definition of done

doneI was looking through some material the other day and a statement came up that I found intriguing. “What is your team’s definition of done?”

Since I believe in the concept of “good enough” rather than spending the time and effort to hit perfection (since we all know that is probably not attainable) this concept of having a formal team definition of when to “put a fork in it” and call it done, made me think – how often do we have a formal structure and definition of being done? Is it flexible??

I’ve talked with people who were doing in-house agile development and their definition of done always seemed to be when they ran out of time or money. Rarely was it when they ran out of requirements. Is that OK?

For programmers who do have a defined set of requirements and are coding for money, they’re done when the requirements were all met, the code was all compiling, everything was tested, the code is installed in production and the customer has signed off. That is getting pretty close to perfection.

Can each of the roles in a project can have their own definition of done? If all those individual definitions are met, is the project done? I can think of a number of situations where the architects completed all their work products but the results were never used effectively. The flag was raise but no one saluted, so done was declared too early.

It just seems like something we may all want to take a moment and think about – when I think I’m done, are the other stakeholders satisfied??